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Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

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Postby Dade on 26 Jan 2012 16:21

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

JMT wrote:If you want to call THIS some type of great trend, sure.

Image


I never said it was great. I said it was going in the right direction and I was correct. You can keep moving the goal post, ("it's not really 8.5%" or "it's not good enough"), but the fact is that the unemployment situation is getting better and has been for many months.

Am I correct that you now agree that the job numbers are in fact moving in the right direction? At first you claimed it was a lie but now you just say it isn't great. That's progress.

Why can't you simply accept that? I don't understand the mentality you guys approach this from. You only want to believe the things that are anti-Obama and are willing to fudge everything else so that you don't have to give him any credit for anything. That's not honest nor is it a smart way to consume information.

I didn't like Bush but I can sit here and say that he did some very good things. I don't like Obama but I can recognize that he has done some good things.
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Postby TechJunkie on 26 Jan 2012 16:57

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

coach wrote:
TechJunkie wrote:Our educational system could train people if they were interested. Not enough are. Nobody wants jobs that seem 'hard'.

This is nonsense you perpetrate through your own worldview.


I have software developer jobs available right now. Do you want one?

Didn't think so.
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Postby Dade on 26 Jan 2012 17:20

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

I found Tech's rant about that dubious at best but I have recently learned that he is dead on. The company I am becoming involved with has two programmers here and the rest are in Eastern Europe. They tried to find qualified people here but could only find two. How is it possible that in the middle of Boston, the smartest city in the world, surrounded by the nation's best colleges, that they can't find qualified computer programmers? According to them.......it's because all the really good programmers are starting their own companies. Crazy.
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Postby JMT on 26 Jan 2012 18:55

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

Dade wrote:Am I correct that you now agree that the job numbers are in fact moving in the right direction? At first you claimed it was a lie but now you just say it isn't great. That's progress.

If the rate only looks good because the total workforce participation is lowered, I would call that a lie, yes. If this year does what the last 2 have done, the overall trend in that graph is moving in the wrong direction.

Dade wrote:I don't like Obama but I can recognize that he has done some good things.

I liked when he took out those those pirates.
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Postby TechJunkie on 26 Jan 2012 21:04

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

Dade wrote:I found Tech's rant about that dubious at best but I have recently learned that he is dead on. The company I am becoming involved with has two programmers here and the rest are in Eastern Europe. They tried to find qualified people here but could only find two. How is it possible that in the middle of Boston, the smartest city in the world, surrounded by the nation's best colleges, that they can't find qualified computer programmers? According to them.......it's because all the really good programmers are starting their own companies. Crazy.


I've been talking about the tech boom that's in progress and people just don't listen. Every time somebody whines about unemployment I try to point out that there is zero unemployment for software developers. I went to the Occupy Wall Street web site and pointed this out for months, every time somebody whined about unemployment. Only ONE person listened and took the time to do some (free) training. I hired him and he's about to get his first raise after 90 days. He will never be unemployed, ever again. The world is creating software developer to-do items more rapidly than the existing developers could ever possibly handle them. And more quickly than new developers could possibly train to deal with the backlog. This problem (not a problem if you're a developer) will continue for decades, at the very least.

Be careful with those Eastern European contractors. I found out recently that I was accidentally financing a Venezuelan sweat shop. I hired one of the sweat shop developers directly at the same rate that I had previously been paying for her time, and she got an effective THOUSAND PERCENT raise, overnight. But that's not the real problem with overseas contractors. The real problem is that most of them suck.
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Postby slamminshaun on 27 Jan 2012 12:56

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

Dade wrote:That's a long, well articulated post and I agree with almost all of it but, nowhere in it do you even try to make the claim that unemployment is not lower today than it was when Barry took office. It was a lot of talk with no actual conclusion. Of course, we're used to that from you.

See.....numbers are numbers. When simply trying to know if the rate has risen or dropped, it does not matter how we calculate the unemployment rate as long as we're consistent in our method. In other words, any method used will show the same arc of progress or decline.

Is it OK to believe it now that shadowstats.com has confirmed it?


Actually, no. Shadow Stats illustrates the absurdity and inconsistency in the government's methods over time. They compare the government's official numbers of today with what the official numbers would be had they kept using the same methodology as in the past. They just use their own numbers against them. That's all it really sets out to accomplish. It never says the government's methodology in the past was correct, it simply peels back the onion and illustrates how ridiculous we are for trusting anything they say...whether it's the numbers from today, or the numbers from yesterday.

I actually did dispute the notion that "unemployment is getting better", because the factors I consider accurate don't agree with that notion. The factor that is concerning me most is the fact that population growth has been outpacing employment growth since 2006, and that the job growth we have seen is unproductive and low-paying work, which compounds the issue at the core. If today you have 500 people and 100 jobs, and tomorrow you have 550 people and 105 jobs, the unemployment situation is worse, not better. You can say, "we added 5 jobs" all you want, but that's nothing but spin doctory. The US population growth rate is about 1% per year, which is more than 3 million per year....so unless we're adding 3 million jobs per year every year, plus adding back the jobs that are previously eliminated, unemployment is still getting worse. (This is crude, and open for hair-splitting attacks, but you see where I'm going....)

So, what I'm getting at, is when you cut out all the silly politicial linguistic analytic games, and redefinitions and hair-splitting of what "unemployment" means, the only objective ratio is total jobs to total population. And total jobs to total population is worse than when Barry took office. And as I said, the earning power of those jobs, and the net worth of the people in the total work force (which is what REALLY counts), has been eroding at an even faster rate.
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Postby Dade on 27 Jan 2012 13:54

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

Like i said, there is a lot of truth in what you say. I am not disagreeing with your overall contention. What I am saying is that, as long as your methodology is consistent, the unemployment numbers are going down. Yes, 8.5% is a joke but whatever the true number is, if your methodology is honest and consistent, the number today is lower than when Obama took office......especially if we consider that those first few months should really be on the previous president's tab.
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Postby JMT on 27 Jan 2012 16:46

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

"Welcome to the recovery."

2011 GDP: 1.7%

That's the final, pathetic growth number for 2011.

From the just-released GDP report:

Real GDP increased 1.7 percent in 2011 (from the 2010 annual level to the 2011 annual level), compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2010.


Barack Obama wrote:On Tuesday at the State of the Union, I laid out my vision for how we move forward. I laid out a blueprint for an economy that's built to last, that has a firm foundation. Where we're making stuff and selling stuff and moving it around and UPS drivers are dropping things off everywhere.

Sounds like a good plan.
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Postby slamminshaun on 27 Jan 2012 20:26

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

WTF is a "blueprint for the economy"? These mother fuckers still think an economy is like a building. Human beings aren't bricks that can be stacked and arranged into a fixed, controlled structure. You can't just roll out some master plan and expect people to start trading with each other exactly the way you designed them to....not unless you can simultaneously and perpetually read 300 million minds. This is why we're doomed. Ignorant, 8th grade level politicians who don't know how to do anything except drop a bunch of platitudes and applause lines. The only master plan is not to have one. Let people trade value for value with one another according to their own plans.
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Postby TechJunkie on 27 Jan 2012 21:24

Re: Obama looked Extremely Confident Last Night, GOP not so Much

slamminshaun wrote:WTF is a "blueprint for the economy"?


Definitely a leftist concept. I find it disturbing whenever I agree with you.
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